Early Russian struggles in Ukraine raise questions about Putin's next steps

Nearly a week has passed since Russian troops invaded Ukraine, and while the invading forces haven’t had the success they anticipated thus far, it’s too early to say whether Ukraine can keep it up.

Nearly a week has passed since Russian troops invaded Ukraine, and while the invading forces haven’t had the success they anticipated thus far, it’s too early to say whether Ukraine can maintain its resistance.

Russian forces have attacked on various axes in an attempt to capture strategic cities, but after almost a week, they have little to show for it.

The troops are roughly 15 miles away from the capital, only 3 miles closer than they had been over the weekend. Their advancement "remains slowed," a senior defense official told reporters Monday.

Kharkiv, the second-largest city in the country, remains under Ukrainian control but is “surrounded” by Russian troops, Mayor Ihor Terekhov told the Washington Post.

After a buildup of nearly 200,000 troops massed on Ukraine's borders, roughly 75% of them have now entered Ukraine, the senior defense official said. This has continued to increase over recent days, though the official added that the United States had not seen evidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin has called up troops from the interior to replace those on the border who went into Ukraine.

Ukraine's initial defense does not necessarily mean the country will prevail long-term.

FULL COVERAGE OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE

“I think it’s possible that the Russians could still win this within a couple of weeks and, [in] hindsight, we’ll be looking back and saying it was a pretty quick victory,” Matt Kroenig, a former defense official and current Georgetown University professor, told the Washington Examiner.

Kroenig, a Vandenberg Coalition advisory board member, compared the invasion to the U.S. takeover of Iraq in the 2000s, and he also explained that he expects “a long-term conflict” that lasts for “months or even years.”

Putin "clearly expected" Ukrainians to give in, and their resistance puts Russia in a "very difficult position," Mark Cancian, a senior adviser for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told the Washington Examiner.

The senior defense official said DOD has seen “indications” that the Russian military is struggling with “fuel and sustainment,” though the official couldn’t speculate as to “whether they just didn’t plan properly for it or whether they just simply didn’t execute their plan.”

"This is going terribly for Vladimir Putin and his forces," retired U.S. Army Gen. David Petraeus said on CNN on Monday. "They designed a flawed concept with multiple axes of advance. They haven't weighted the main effort into Kyiv, the capital. After all, the main objective is to topple the government and replace President Zelensky with someone who is pro-Russian."

With Russian forces struggling to get major victories, experts suggest that Putin, when pinned in a corner, is even more dangerous. He has already ordered Russia's nuclear deterrence to be put on high alert, though the senior official said, "I don't believe we've seen anything specific as a result of the direction that he gave, at least not yet."

Petraeus added, "We have to start thinking through, how do we provide Russia an out? You never want to put a guy who has nuclear weapons truly in a corner where he feels that he has nothing left to lose."

Sen. Mark Warner, the chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, similarly warned on MSNBC on Monday that Putin has “been backed into a corner” with “no obvious exit ramp" after being “clearly ... caught off guard by the size of the Ukrainian resistance."

Warner's colleague, Sen. Marco Rubio, the vice chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, also said that Putin, “facing a humiliating military fiasco,” has created the “most dangerous moment in 60 years" because “his only options to reset this imbalance are catastrophic ones.”

The U.S., NATO, and other countries have rallied behind Ukraine and President Volodymyr Zelensky, a former comedian and actor turned president, creating exactly what Putin was trying to prevent — a cohesive NATO with a presence nearby. They have also levied sanctions on Putin, elites in Russia, and their financial system, and they have provided the Ukrainian military additional weaponry and resources while trying not to escalate the situation further.

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President Joe Biden and members of his administration have repeatedly said that U.S. forces, despite roughly 12,000 of them being deployed to European allies, will not engage in combat against Russian troops. Rather, they are stationed in neighboring and nearby countries so they can assist refugees.

The Biden administration rejected calls for a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine on Monday, arguing that it would be an “escalatory” measure, and the White House initially opted not to push for Russia's removal from SWIFT, the main banking system that facilitates financial transactions globally, though it eventually supported the move.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/early-russian-struggles-in-ukraine-raise-questions-about-putins-next-steps